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MBS RECAP: MBS Handily Outperform Treasuries as Consolidation Continues

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's trading session was far less eventful than anything else seen in the past few weeks, both in terms of movement and volume. Although Treasury yields were higher, most of the increase came in the overnight session, and additional volatility was minimal throughout the day. By the time we get to MBS (as opposed to Treasuries), things were even more calm . Fannie 4.0 coupons were almost perfectly unchanged compared to 10yr Treasuries which lost more than a quarter of a point in price. At least some of the pressure may have been due to the fact that it's a 3/10/30yr auction week with today being 10's. It's not uncommon for bonds to lose a bit of ground heading into auctions Today was no exception with most of the losses coming BEFORE the somewhat weak 10yr auction. The morning's...(read more)

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12/13/2018 12:02 AM

Mortgage Rates Could Go Even Higher

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates rose more noticeably today as a part of a 3 day bounce after hitting the lowest levels in roughly 3 months at the end of last week. Whereas yesterday's increases weren't really worth mentioning, today's hurt--depending on the scenario. In general, this bounce was to-be-expected. Granted, we can't ever know exactly how big such bounces will be or how long they'll last, but when rates improve for as many days in a row as they recently had, a bounce is increasingly inevitable. So how bad is this one? Not too bad so far. I'm not thrilled about the "3 days" part, but really it's only been today that counts (the other two days were effectively flat). As such, tomorrow and Friday become a bit more important by way of assessing any momentum ahead of next week's Fed Announcement (which...(read more)

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12/12/2018 11:24 PM

Lenders Looking to New Tech as Pessimism Over Profit Margins Grows

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Lenders continue to be pessimistic about their profit outlook as 2018 draws to an end. Fannie Mae said its fourth quarter 2018 Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey found the profit outlook reported by respondents at an all-time survey low. This was true whether they were talking about purchase or refinance mortgages or about GSE-eligible, non-GSE-eligible, or government loans. It was the ninth consecutive quarter that lender outlook has declined. Smaller slices of a shrinking pie sums up the reasons given by lenders for their lowering outlook, especially for refinancing. When asked whether refinancing demand had increased over the past three months for any loan type, or if they expected it would over the next three months, positive answers did not break 5 percent. Responses to the same questions...(read more)

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12/12/2018 04:21 PM

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Have Lots on Their Mind, But Beware The Bounce

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As we begin the third day of moderate weakness in bond markets, it's safe to say that we're looking at the correction and/or consolidation that we expected to see as of the end of last week. Bonds wouldn't have needed any other reason apart from the preceding rally to bounce. But as that process unfolds, it's been complicated by other competing stimuli. These include but are not limited to Brexit-related drama, trade war news, the stock lever (stock prices and bond yields moving together), the Treasury auction cycle, and year-end trading position housekeeping. Depending on when you look, you might see one of these factors having more of an influence than another. For example, yesterday saw US bonds take more guidance from Europe while today has seen more of a stock lever effect...(read more)

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12/12/2018 03:16 PM

Non-QM and Warehouse Products; STRATMOR Tech Insight Study

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Who among us has pushed for abolishing the mortgage-interest deduction, supported getting rid of government subsidies for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, putting Fannie and Freddie into receivership, and supported ending the sweep of F&F’s profits into the Federal Government? The answer is Dr. Mark Calabria, currently working for Mike Pence, and if confirmed by the Senate, he’ll replace Mel Watt as the Director of the FHFA , overseer of Freddie and Fannie. As mentioned yesterday in this commentary, there are plenty of ways the government can reduce its footprint in home lending: lowering LTVs, raising gfees, cutting back on non-owner or high-balance lending, adjusting the QM patch for DU & LP approval, and so on. Confirmation will take months, but given this personnel change...(read more)

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12/12/2018 02:09 PM

White House Nominates Calabria as New FHFA Chief

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Almost exactly 10 years after he helped pass the legislation that established the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Mark Anthony Calabria has been nominated by the White House to be its director. If his nomination is confirmed by the Senate, Calabria, currently the Chief Economist in the Office of the Vice President, will succeed Melvin Watt whose five-year term expires in January. Calabria has a long history in housing and housing finance. He was a senior aide to the Senate Banking Committee in 2008, helping to draft the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA), which created the Federal Housing Finance Agency and was a Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Department of Housing and Urban Development during the second Bush administration. He has also held positions at the Cato Institute...(read more)

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12/12/2018 01:11 PM

Mortgage Applications: Trade Fears Drive Rates Lower, Borrowers Respond

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Borrower activity continued to pick up last week as interest rates retreated to September levels and mortgage applications extended their recent winning streak. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, increased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended December 7. On an unadjusted basis, the Index lost 1 percent from the previous week's level. The Refinance Index rose 2 percent compared to the week ended November 30, and the share of applications that were for refinancing bettered the previous week's 9 month high of 40.4 percent, rising to 41.5 percent. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased for the fourth straight week, this time by 3 percent. The Purchase Index was down by 2 percent on an unadjusted...(read more)

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12/12/2018 01:06 PM