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MBS RECAP: Deceptively Relevant Econ Data But Range Prevails

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Since Retail Sales rocked markets yesterday, perhaps bonds would be interested in responding to economic data again today? This question seemed to have been answered when bonds apparently jumped following this morning's 8:30am economic data. The only problem was that the data in question included NY Fed Manufacturing and Import/Export Prices. These are not reports that tend to cause such immediate and highly correlated movement. So what gives? For better or worse, I stare at a tick by tick stream of bond data for most of the day. Anyone else who spends their lives in such a manner would also surely have seen bonds on the move in 2 distinct ways well in advance of 8:30am. The first was a more general move that began with the European trading session. While it was general and relatively slow...(read more)

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02/15/2019 08:43 PM

"Homeowners are in Great Shape," Delinquencies Improve Across the Board

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage loan delinquencies were down from the third quarter of 2018 in the fourth quarter. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the improvements held across all loan types and all stages of delinquency although there was a slight uptick in foreclosure starts. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.06 percent of all loans outstanding, down 41 basis points (bps) from the third quarter and 111 bps from the fourth quarter of 2017 according to MBA's National Delinquency Survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the fourth quarter rose by 2 bps to 0.25 percent but MBA said that was probably due to the expiration of foreclosure moratoria in states affected by natural...(read more)

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02/15/2019 08:13 PM

Mortgage Rates in a Holding Pattern

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were slightly higher today, marking the 6th day in a row where they've reversed course versus the previous day. This is the sort of behavior we see when underlying financial markets are having a hard time making up their mind (or are simply waiting for something before committing to the next big move). In the case of mortgage rates, the underlying financial market is the bond market. There are specific bonds that most directly affect mortgage rates, but they are almost always moving in the same direction as other bonds anyway. That allows us to use something like the 10yr Treasury yield to keep an eye on interest rate momentum. There we see yields locked in an increasingly narrow range since the beginning of the year. Movements inside that range aren't important to the bigger...(read more)

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02/15/2019 08:01 PM

MBS Day Ahead: Range Trade Likely to Dominate Heading Into Holiday Weekend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Rates were at long term highs in early November 2019. Several global economic risks were beginning to swirl at the same time. These included a slowdown in German GDP, the weakest Chinese retail sales in 15 years, Italian budget drama, and a Federal Reserve that didn't seem to care about big stock losses in October. The Fed had released an announcement on the Wednesday before Veteran's Day weekend. That trading day saw 10yr yields hit 3.25% and they never went any higher after that. In fact, they mostly went lower--especially when the stock sell-off kicked into higher gear in December. All of the above made November and December the best 2-month stretch for rates in more than 2 years. When rates rally that aggressively, they usually take a break and move sideways before deciding if the...(read more)

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02/15/2019 02:53 PM

GSEs Continue Financial Winning Streaks

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (the GSEs) reported solid financial results for both the fourth quarter and the entirety of the 2018 fiscal year on Thursday. The annual income was higher for both GSEs , although each posted a decrease quarter-over-quarter. Fannie Mae's total comprehensive income for the fourth quarter was $3.2 billion compared to $4.0 billion in the third quarter, and it reported a $16.0 billion total for the year. Because of ramifications from the 2017 tax act , its comprehensive income for the 2017 year was only $2.6 billion. Freddie Mac's total comprehensive income for the year was $8.6 billion compared to $5.6 billion in 2017 (it too had unusually high tax obligations that year.) For the fourth quarter comprehensive income dropped from $2.6 billion to $1.5 billion. Fannie Mae...(read more)

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02/15/2019 02:42 PM

Sales Jobs; Construction, Marketing Products; Impressive Agency Earnings

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Huh? Radian was recently in takeover talks ? I only know what I read in the newspapers! Sometimes I wonder if everyone isn’t in M&A talks to one degree or another, and rumors continue to swirl about a publicly-held bank in the Northwest spinning off its mortgage division. There’s a lot going on in our biz, especially with Freddie & Fannie in the present & future – more below. Even my cat Myrtle is silent, ignoring my questions about what she’s been up to lately. Lender Products and Services With the new integration between LBA Ware’s CompenSafeTM and the enterprise digital mortgage solution from SimpleNexus , loan originators can now receive real-time compensation notifications through the SimpleNexus mobile app. SimpleNexus provides LOs with a single...(read more)

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02/15/2019 02:04 PM

Fewer Plan to Buy, But Others Aren't Giving Up

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The perceptions, expectations, and plans of prospective homebuyers appear to be undergoing a transition according to results from the most recent Housing Trends survey report from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB). Rose Quint writes about the fourth quarter 2018 survey in a five-part series in the association's Eye on Housing Blog. She says that, for starters, there has been a steady erosion in the percentage of adults who said they planned to purchase a home within a year. That share slipped quarterly from 24 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 13 percent in both the third and fourth quarters of 2018. Quint says the decline provides additional evidence that housing affordability has become a serious concern. Its deterioration has been driven by several years of strong home...(read more)

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02/15/2019 01:19 PM