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MBS RECAP: Europe to The Rescue

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days. With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'cast in today's Retail Sales and another decades-long low in Jobless Claims), any recessionary risks have been pinned on the two biggest economies that have been sending the weakest cues: Europe and China. Earlier this week (and starting last Friday), Chinese economic data didn't do anything to help the cause of worrying about global growth. Overnight trading saw the China trade level off, however, thus opening the door for a raft of EU economic data to have its say. Among that data, it was the weaker German manufacturing PMI that set the tone overnight. German Bunds rallied sharply and pulled US Treasuries along for the ride. In the...(read more)

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04/18/2019 06:31 PM

Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly After Big Losing Streak

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates have generally been moving higher since March 28th after they bottomed out at the lowest levels in well over a year. At the time, investors were tuned-in to the Fed's concerns about the global economy. Granted, the US economy might not have been suggesting an imminent recession, but that was far more difficult to say about China and Europe. Both economies were clearly decelerating by the end of 2018 and into the first few months of 2019. That deceleration was the biggest risk factor for the global economy and the biggest boon for mortgage rates. Weak European economic data at the end of March helped drive the long-term low rates on March 27th. But that marked the apex of panic. We haven't seen any data quite as alarming since then and thus, the gradual increase in rates (economic...(read more)

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04/18/2019 06:06 PM

Lower Rates Have Slight Impact on New Loan Stats

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Continuing declines in interest rates had some impact along the margins of loan originations in March. Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report for March reports that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages originated during the month had an average interest rate of 4.77 percent , down from 4.86 percent in February and 5.01 percent in January. The company reported that the share of originations that were for refinancing ticked up 1 percentage point to 35 percent during the month while the share among FHA loans jumped 3 percentage points to 23 percent. FHA's share of all originations also rose 1 point to 20 percent. The share of conventional and VA loans remained at 64 percent and 11 percent of the total respectively. Another possible impact of lower rates, the percentage of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs...(read more)

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04/18/2019 03:01 PM

MBS Day Ahead: EU Weakness Helping US Bonds, But Don't Count Chickens

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Despite the presence of a big economic report like Retail Sales (which came out much higher than expected) or the unique event risk presented by the Barr report, the defining moment of the trading day will turn out to be the 3:30am release of just-slightly-weaker manufacturing data in Germany. Case in point: As seen in the chart, the 8:30am Retail Sales data pushed back on the 3:30am rally, but not enough to break into higher yields. Since then, European bonds have continued to slump and US bonds have continued following. Why do we care so much about a piddly little manufacturing headline in Germany? Keep in mind that, in terms of the domestic economy, it's hard to make a case for any imminent recession or significant contraction in economic growth. For such conclusions, we must turn to...(read more)

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04/18/2019 02:10 PM

Paper on FHA Changes; Tech Report; Compliance and Ops News

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Experienced originators know that lending is a numbers game. Every 100 cold calls result in 20 conversations, which result in 5 potential leads, which result in 1 closed loan. Or whatever personal ratios are. Not only that, but there is a 2-4-month lag time between those 100 calls and any funded loans that come from making them so good LOs have been laying the groundwork for summer for a quite some time. But speaking of two months, from St. Louis Mike Swaleh reminded me that the revised Uniform Closing Dataset (UCD) Seller data requirements will be effective on June 24, 2019 . Lenders are working on the borrower’s app process. For example, Envoy Mortgage has developed XLR8 . More on Ops issues below. Lender Products and Services MGIC’s SEB Cash Flow Worksheets are Now Live ! These...(read more)

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04/18/2019 01:15 PM

Lenders Manage Tiny Profits in 2018 Despite Rate Hikes, Inventories

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Despite their fourth quarter loss reported last month, independent mortgage banks and bank mortgage subsidiaries still managed, albeit barely, to stay in the black last year. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said that banks responding to its survey made an average profit of $367 on each loan they originated last year, down from $711 per loan in 2017. They lost an average of $200 per loan in the last quarter of the year, only the third quarterly loss since MBA began collecting the data in 2008. "Despite a healthy economy in 2018, the mortgage market suffered, as rate hikes hurt refinancing volume and low housing inventories priced some potential homebuyers out of the purchase market," said Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis. "For mortgage companies, there was the perfect...(read more)

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04/18/2019 12:20 PM

MBS RECAP: Bonds Battle Back After Opening Weakness

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As feared, bonds were gearing up for the raft of big-ticket economic data in China overnight. On balance, that data was quite a bit better than expected. The resulting selling spree was thus fairly logical. 10yr yields nearly hit 2.62% before it was over. It definitely could have been worse. I think part of the resilience is explained by the extent to which bonds have moved to price-in economic stability (or even a rebound) in China. Such a thing would definitely be worth higher yields at home, and the last week of Chinese data keeps the risk on the table. There wasn't really a big enough reason to justify the size of Friday's bond sell-off. Combine that with today's sell-off seemingly being too light and we come to the conclusion that it's been one big move leading up to today...(read more)

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04/17/2019 09:06 PM